Here’s a quick post about a wheel in downtown Reykjavik and information about when you should spin it, rather then ordering a beer.
On Austurstræti (a street below the main street Laugavegur) in Iceland is a nice little place called The English Pub. I like the atmosphere there and it’s currently my number one place during the workweek when you really need to have a good time. I can highly recommend it for a great Wednesday night out (Wednesdays are the new Thursdays).
They have live shows every night, but their main attraction is the lucky wheel, for 1.500 ISK you can spin the wheel and drink away the prize!
But how lucky is it?(1)
Here we can see that there are 16 different fields.
- 2 Shots
- Spin Again
- 1 Meter Beer (10 Small Beers)
- Sorry
- 3 Large Beers
- Spin Again
- 1 Large Beer
- Sorry
- 2 Large Beers
- Sorry
- 8 Large Beers
- Sorry
- 1 Large Beer
- Spin Again
- 4 Large Beers
- Sorry
If you hit “Spin Again” you spin the wheel again so we don’t need to take that into account when calculating the expected outcome, that leaves 13 fields that matter.
We know how much each of the items costs at The English Pub charges;
- Shots are 700.- ISK each.
- Small Beers are 600.- ISK each.
- Large beers are 800.- ISK each.
- A Sorry is free of charge.
From this information we can derive the value of each outcome;
- 2 Shots = 1.400.- ISK
- 1 Meter Beer (10 Small Beers) = 6.000.- ISK
- Sorry = 0.- ISK
- 3 Large Beers = 2.400.- ISK
- 1 Large Beer = 800.- ISK
- Sorry = 0.- ISK
- 2 Large Beers = 1.600.- ISK
- Sorry = 0.- ISK
- 8 Large Beers = 6.400.- ISK
- Sorry = 0.- ISK
- 1 Large Beer = 800.- ISK
- 4 Large Beers = 3.200.- ISK
- Sorry = 0.- ISK
With very simple calculations we find that the expected value of a fair spin(2) is 1.738.- ISK. That is higher then 1.500.- ISK, the cost of spinning the wheel.
So to conclude;
Spin the Wheel!
(1) I’m not going to take into account the fun side of getting 8 large beer with a couple of your friends and how that effects the fun’nes of the evening.
(2) I’m assuming that the wheel is not rigged and each field
Update 1
Below is a simulation done my friend Agnar Darri. He graphs expected total value as a function of total number of spins.
Update 2
Update suggested by Björgvin Ragnarsson.
When you feel like ordering a meter of beer you probably won’t ask for 10 small beers. The small beer at English is about 330 ml. If you use the liter price for large beers the cost is 5.280.- instead of 6.000.- so this changes the Expected Value to 1.683.- ISK
We still Spin The Wheel!
Update 3
It turns out that the beer is way cheaper on weekdays before 11 o’clock now in October or only 500 ISK. So now we calculate for both Update 2 (Using the liter price of large beers for the meeter) and spinning on a week day. That makes the expected value 1.092.- which is lower then the cost of spinning the wheel!
Also, we calculate that when the price of beer is less then 707.- ISK, you shouldn’t Spin the Wheel.
